SolarCycle WORKSHOP 1

Will the marketing campaign pay?

One round is one possible month. Draw the sales response for each bike model, then calculate incremental profit.

Additional marketing cost / month€180,000
Ready for the first draw
COMBINE THIS MONTH'S DRAWSNo month drawn
Urban contributionWaiting
Racing contributionWaiting
Cargo contributionWaiting
Marketing cost€180,000
Incremental profitWaitingAfter the campaign cost

Build the profit distribution

Completed months0
Mean incremental profit / monthNot run
Share with incremental profit > €0Not runOnly completed draws enter the results

Distribution of incremental profit

Profit decreasesProfit increases

Each completed month adds one observation. Each bin covers €2,500.

Cumulative distribution

Probability of profit at or below a chosen level

At €0, this curve shows the share of months in which the campaign does not improve profit.

How a draw becomes profit

For each model, draw a number uniformly between 0 and 1. Its position in the probability strip selects the sales increase. A wider interval is more likely to be selected. Each model receives a separate, independent draw.

ModelHistorical average bikes / monthPrice / bikeEstimated variable cost / bike

Additional contribution = historical average quantity × drawn percentage increase × contribution per bike. Contribution per bike is selling price less estimated variable cost.

Incremental profit is the sum of the additional contributions, less €180,000. Existing fixed costs cancel when comparing the company with and without this campaign. All percentages apply to the original historical averages.

Each result is a change in monthly operating profit. A positive result means the campaign improves profit. The company can still make an overall loss.

The quantity averages and cost estimates use the original 24 monthly observations. Calculations retain full precision. Fractional bikes represent planning quantities. The supplied probabilities describe uncertainty about the campaign response; cost estimates and baseline sales remain fixed.

The distribution has 27 possible combinations. The exact comparison weights every combination by its probability. The histogram groups nearby values; the cumulative curve retains the individual outcomes. Reset clears the results and starts a new random sample.